Janco Partners' Mike Hickey expects Infinity Ward's upcoming shooter to be the best-selling game of 2009.
In March, Activision revealed that Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare had
sold 12 million copies after nearly 17 months on the market. If one
analyst is right, it might not take very long for Modern Warfare 2 to
beat that mark.
In a note to investors today, Janco Partners' Mike Hickey predicted
that Modern Warfare 2 would sell through to consumers 11.1 million
copies in less than two months. He says the game can achieve that mark
with the help of a ramped-up preorder campaign courtesy of Activision,
the more-than-doubled size of the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 installed
bases since the release of the original Modern Warfare, and the series'
massive fan base.
"On May 26 2009, Infinity Ward's community manager Robert
Bowling 'fourzerotwo' commented that Call of Duty 4 has over 13 million
unique users on Xbox 360," Hickey explained. "A particularly impressive
number considering an estimated 30 percent of Xbox's installed base is
not connected to Xbox Live. On January 8, 2009, Bowling estimated that
there were over 4 million unique online users on the PS3 platform and
over 10 million on the Xbox 360. We assume the PS3 unique users have
now eclipsed 5 million based on Xbox 360 identified online user growth
of 30 percent."
That puts Hickey's estimated online Call of Duty 4 gamers at 18
million. Assume that 30 percent of Call of Duty fans don't take their
systems online, and Hickey believes that the potential market for
Modern Warfare 2 consists of a whopping 25.7 million gamers.
Putting it bluntly, Hickey said, "We believe Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 will likely be the largest video game release for
[calendar year] '09."
Modern Warfare 2 will release on the PC, Xbox 360, and PS3 November 10. For more on the title, check out GameSpot's latest hands-on impressions.
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